New Delhi, April 2 – Indian exports across several key sectors, including agriculture, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, electronics, and machinery, may face the brunt of retaliatory tariffs imposed by the United States. Experts warn that products with a high tariff differential—where India's import duties are significantly higher than those of the US—are particularly vulnerable.
As per agency report, the tariff differential refers to the gap between the import duties imposed by India and the United States on similar products. This gap varies widely across sectors. For example, the differential is 8.6 percent for chemicals and pharmaceuticals, 5.6 percent for plastics, 1.4 percent for textiles and garments, 13.3 percent for gems and jewellery, 2.5 percent for metals, 5.3 percent for machinery and computers, 7.2 percent for electronics, and 23.1 percent for automobiles and their components.
According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), agriculture is likely to be one of the worst-hit sectors. Processed seafood, particularly shrimp—India’s major export to the US—could become less competitive due to higher tariffs. In 2024, India exported fish, meat, and processed seafood worth $2.58 billion to the US, with a tariff differential of 27.83 percent.
Yogesh Gupta, Managing Director of Kolkata-based seafood exporter Mega Moda, stated that Indian seafood exports to the US are already subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties. An additional increase in duties would erode India's competitiveness. Nearly 40 percent of India's shrimp exports go to the US. Gupta noted that Indian exporters could find relief if similar tariffs are imposed on rival exporters like Ecuador and Indonesia.
Processed food, sugar, and cocoa exports, valued at $1.03 billion last year, may also be impacted by a 24.99 percent tariff differential. Similarly, exports of grains, vegetables, fruits, and spices worth $1.91 billion face a 5.72 percent differential.
Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, highlighted that dairy product exports worth $181.49 million may be severely affected by a 38.23 percent tariff gap, making ghee, butter, and milk powder more expensive and less competitive in the US market.
In industrial goods, pharmaceuticals, jewellery, and electronics are among the sectors likely to feel the impact. Pharmaceuticals, India’s largest industrial export worth $12.72 billion in 2024, may face a 10.9 percent tariff hike, raising costs for generic and specialty drugs. Gems and jewellery exports, totaling $11.88 billion, could see a 13.32 percent increase in duties, diminishing price competitiveness.
Electrical, telecom, and electronic goods worth $14.39 billion face a 7.24 percent tariff. Machinery, boilers, turbines, and computers, with an export value of $7.10 billion, may be hit with a 5.29 percent tariff increase, potentially affecting India’s engineering exports.
Rubber products such as tyres and belts, worth $1.06 billion, may be subjected to a 7.76 percent tariff, while paper and wood products valued at $969.65 million could face duties of around 7.87 percent. The new tariff regime threatens to raise costs and reduce India’s competitiveness in key sectors across the US market.
