India Scoop Releases West Bengal Exit Poll 2026: Full Seat Predictions Inside
India Scoop today published its full exit poll for the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026, projecting the Trinamool Congress at 150–172 seats and the BJP at 110–130 — a forecast built on independent ground-level survey data collected across the state's 294 constituencies.
The numbers paint a picture of a state where TMC retains enough of its structural advantage to form a majority government, but faces a BJP opposition stronger than at any previous point in the party's Bengal history. Here is the complete data breakdown.
Summary Seat Projections
| Party | Projected Seats | Status |
| TMC | 150 – 172 | Majority |
| BJP | 110 – 130 | Opposition |
| INC | 3 – 5 | Marginal |
| Others | 5 – 10 | Fringe |
Total assembly seats: 294. Majority mark: 148. Source: India Scoop internal data survey, April 2026.
Historical Seat Comparison
| Party | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 Projected | Change (2021–2026) |
| TMC | 211 | 213 | 150 – 172 | -41 to -63 |
| BJP | 3 | 77 | 110 – 130 | +33 to +53 |
| INC | 44 | 0 | 3 – 5 | +3 to +5 |
| Others | 36 | 4 | 5 – 10 | +1 to +6 |
2026 figures are midpoint projections. 2016 and 2021 are official results.
Reading the BJP Number
The BJP's projected midpoint of 120 seats represents a 56% increase on its 2021 tally of 77. More significantly, it marks a nearly 40-fold increase from its 2016 tally of just 3 seats. In a decade, the party has gone from an irrelevant fringe in Bengal's assembly to the second-largest force and potentially the largest opposition bloc the state has ever seen in the post-Left era.
At the upper end of BJP's range (130 seats), the margin between the two leading parties narrows to just 22 seats, historically tight for a state that returned TMC with a 136-seat buffer in 2021.
The Congress Collapse in Context
INC's projected 3–5 seats stand in sharp contrast to its 44 seats in 2016 and its complete wipeout of 0 seats in 2021. A recovery to even 5 seats would represent a marginal resurgence, but the trajectory confirms what political analysts have long argued: Congress has effectively ceased to be a competitive force in West Bengal's direct assembly contests.
What a TMC Majority at 150 Means vs 172
The 22-seat spread within TMC's own projection range carries significant political weight. A TMC tally closer to 150 seats leaves little room for internal dissent, floor-crossing, or by-election setbacks over a five-year term. A tally closer to 172 would give Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee a far more comfortable governing mandate closer to the buffer she held in 2021, when TMC won 213 seats.
Methodology Note
India Scoop's West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 is based on internal survey data collected through an extensive independent ground research process, covering a significant number of data points statewide. The methodology prioritises constituency-level ground truth over aggregated sampling models. All projections carry an inherent margin of variance; actual results may differ.
