Resilience Amidst Uncertainty: Indian Economy Shows Mixed Signs, NCER Report Suggests

New Delhi - Amidst ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, the Indian economy continues to display resilience, though certain high-frequency indicators suggest a softening economic outlook. This was highlighted in the latest monthly economic review by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).

According to the report, growth in bank loans from scheduled commercial banks (both food and non-food sectors) is expected to decline by June 2024. There has been a noted decrease in personal loans and bank lending to the services sector. Additionally, the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2024 saw a slight decline but maintained an expansionary trajectory. However, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) and the IPI for major industries recorded a decrease in growth in June 2024.

The NCAER review also pointed out a decrease in core inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2024, primarily due to reduced food inflation. Correspondingly, inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) also declined in July, largely due to the same factors. Notably, the trade deficit for goods increased in July 2024, while there was a sequential increase in the trade surplus for services.

Established in 1956, NCAER remains India's oldest and largest independent, non-profit economic policy research institute, dedicated to providing insights and solutions for sustained economic growth.