Monsoon in India May Be Weaker Than Normal This Year, Impact of El Niño Expected
The India Meteorological Department has indicated that the southwest monsoon, crucial for the country's agriculture and economy, is likely to be weaker than normal this year. This is the first time since 2023 that the department has forecasted below-average rainfall.
According to the department, rainfall from June to September is expected to be around 92 percent of the long-term average (LPA). The department has also accounted for a model error of 5 percent in this forecast. The primary reason for the reduced rainfall is attributed to the developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which often affect the Indian monsoon.
Statistically, the LPA for the four-month monsoon session is set at 87 centimeters. If the forecast holds true, the average rainfall across the country could be limited to around 80.04 centimeters. According to the department's criteria, rainfall between 90 to 95 percent of the LPA is categorized as below normal.
The department has suggested that most parts of the country will experience a rainfall deficit, although conditions may be slightly better in some areas of Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India. Analysis indicates a 35 percent chance of a weak monsoon and a 31 percent chance of below-normal conditions. However, it is reassuring that less rainfall does not always equate to poor crop yields.
If the timing and distribution of rainfall are appropriate, the impact on Kharif production may be minimal. Nevertheless, the risk has increased for pulses and oilseed crops grown in rainfed areas. A decrease in the production of these crops could lead to a rise in import bills and food inflation, potentially affecting the country's economic growth rate.
Currently, 55 percent of India's agricultural area is irrigated, which helps combat drought-like conditions. The meteorological department will release its updated forecast at the end of May, which will provide information on the exact date of the monsoon.
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