Trump's tariff decision and F&O settlement likely to keep stock markets volatile
New Delhi February 22. Stock markets are expected to remain volatile in the upcoming week due to a combination of domestic macroeconomic data, the monthly futures and options (F&O) settlement, and global developments linked to the tariff hikes announced by US President Donald Trump following a US Supreme Court decision. Analysts have indicated that these factors will play a crucial role in determining market movements.
Market experts believe that the direction of the market will also be influenced by the trading activities of foreign investors, tensions between the United States and Iran, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and global monetary signals. As per agency report, Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President (Research) at Religare Broking Ltd, stated that the market is likely to remain volatile in the coming week, particularly due to the monthly F&O settlement scheduled for February 24. On the domestic front, investors will be focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, foreign exchange reserves, and infrastructure output figures.
Investors are also expected to assess the implications of the new executive order by the US President, which could impact trade conditions, tariff structures, and global risk perception. This development comes in the wake of the recent US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. According to analysts, following the court's decision on Friday, Trump imposed a 10 percent tariff on several countries, including India, for 150 days, which was subsequently raised to 15 percent a day later. This has escalated concerns regarding trade tensions and their potential adverse effects on the global economy.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted that investors will closely monitor US-Iran relations, crude oil prices, and global monetary cues. He added that the impact of India's GDP figures on corporate earnings and market conditions will also be watched carefully. In the previous week, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended with a gain of 187.95 points or 0.22 percent, while the NSE Nifty rose by 100.15 points or 0.39 percent.
Nair observed that market sentiment swung between caution and enthusiasm last week. Buying interest in banking, financial, power, and select FMCG stocks helped mitigate the impact of global uncertainties. However, IT stocks remained sluggish due to concerns regarding AI-related changes and margin pressures. Despite this, strength in large-cap stocks and optimism surrounding India's participation in Pax Silica kept the market in positive territory. Analysts believe that the domestic market may remain within a limited range in the near future, where liquidity flows and global risk sentiment will prove to be the main factors.
