Akhilesh Yadav's SP stars in UP show, with Rahul Gandhi in support

Lucknow, 4 June (HS): As the count for the Lok Sabha election results 2024 continues, the BJP looks to be experiencing unexpected setbacks in major Hindi heartland states, most notably Uttar Pradesh, which has been critical to its political domination nationwide since 2014.

In Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the 543-member Lok Sabha, the BJP is in a dead heat with Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, a member of the opposition INDI Alliance.

At 5 p.m., the Samajwadi Party led with 34 seats, the BJP with 36, the Congress with seven, and the RLD with two. The SP and Congress are allies in the INDI bloc, and the BJP and Jayant Chaudhry's RLD formed an alliance prior to the elections.

Akhilesh Yadav's solo campaigning and combined rallies with Rahul Gandhi appear to have worked, whilst the BJP's Ram Mandir pitch following the temple's opening in Ayodhya does not appear to have had an electoral impact. The image contrasts sharply with the Lok Sabha election outcomes of 2014 and 2019, which played a critical role in putting Narendra Modi to power.

2019 AND 2014 GENERAL ELECTION: In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 62 of the state's 80 seats, while the BSP finished second with 10 seats. The Samajwadi Party won five seats, while the Congress received just one. Back then, the SP had formed an alliance with Mayawati's BSP.

The BJP lost some momentum in the 2019 general election, as the opposition parties' total score fell to 16. Despite typical anti-incumbency fears, the saffron party gained 62 seats, with its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) picking up two more. In 2019, the BJP won the most seats?23?in the state's western region, while the SP-BSP combination won only four seats each.

The BSP gained Saharanpur, Bijnor, Amroha, and Nagina (SC seats) in western Uttar Pradesh, while the Samajwadi Party won Sambhal, Moradabad, Mainpuri (first held by Mulayam Singh Yadav, then by Dimple Yadav in a bypoll), and Rampur that year.

The center area of the state features major parliamentary seats such as Amethi and Rae Bareli, both of which have traditionally been regarded Congress bastions. In 2019, former Congress president Sonia Gandhi kept her Rae Bareli seat, but her son Rahul Gandhi lost his long-held Amethi seat to union Minister Smriti Irani. The BJP swept the Bundelkhand area in 2019, winning all four Lok Sabha seats: Jhansi, Banda, Hamirpur, and Jalaun-SC. The then-allies Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) won the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in the Muslim-majority area of western Uttar Pradesh. However, the political dynamics have shifted dramatically this time. During the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and its allies won 73 of the state's 80 seats.

2024 STORY SO FAR: In 2019, the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party combination stood up to the BJP on a few seats in western and eastern Uttar Pradesh, but it had little influence.

With BSP supremo Mayawati electing to go it alone this time, it was up to the SP and Congress to halt the marauding juggernaut of the NDA, which this time had the RLD on its side, as well as a number of caste-based regional parties in the Poorvanchal area.

The BJP, together with its longstanding allies Apna Dal (Sonelal) and NISHAD Party, contested the 2024 elections with new NDA partners Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Om Prakash Rajbhar's Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party.

The election looks to have represented a return to traditional politics, with people more worried about bread and butter concerns, particularly in the Hindi heartland states, where the opposition INDIA coalition was able to galvanize followers around issues of unemployment and price increases. On its own, the Bharatiya Janata Party seemed to be falling short of the majority threshold, with leads in 236 seats despite strong wins in Odisha, Telangana, and Kerala, providing some relief following the surprise losses in the Hindi belt.

Its opponent INDIA group, formed by a shared disdain for the BJP and its ideology, was leading in around 230 seats. In the last elections, the BJP won 303 seats, while the NDA won more than 350.

The Congress party led in 99 seats, compared to 52 in 2019. The performance of its partner, the Samajwadi Party, which was leading in 34 seats in Uttar Pradesh, was even more surprising. It won only five seats in the last elections. The SP-Congress coalition turned the tables on the BJP in its biggest bastion by consolidating anti-BJP votes, restricting the party's margin to 35 seats, down from 62 the previous time. The SP-Congress coalition was ahead in 42 seats.