'UP Ke Ladke' worked for INDI Alliance

Lucknow, 4 June (HS): Six hours into the Lok Sabha election count, one thing was clear: the BJP's supremacy in Uttar Pradesh was under threat from the INDI Alliance. At lunchtime, the INDI coalition of Samajwadi Party and Congress was leading 44 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats, nine more than the NDA's 35.

The BJP won 71 seats in the 2014 election and 62 seats in 2019. Exit surveys projected a recurrence of the pattern this time, but the results thus far confirm the warning: exit polls don't always get it right. There are still several rounds of counting left, and the image might alter at any time. Here's a look at the primary reasons behind the BJP's massive loss in Uttar Pradesh.

Did Ram Mandir help the BJP? One of the most talked-about issues in this election was the construction of a huge Ram temple in Ayodhya, a BJP electoral promise made in the 1980s that BJP supporters thought would be the deciding factor in the Lok Sabha election outcomes.

However, patterns reveal that Ayodhya has failed to impose itself as a vital component in Faizabad, the constituency of which it is a part. According to Election Commission figures, Awadesh Prasad of the Samajwadi Party leads BJP candidate Lallu Singh by more than 4,000 votes. Looking at the neighboring seats, the BJP leads in two of the seven that border Faizabad: Gonda and Kaiserganj. Congress leads in two of the remaining five, Amethi and Barabanki, while SP leads in three, Sultanpur, Ambednagar, and Basti.

This time, "UP Ke Ladke" is clicked. Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi were last seen campaigning together in the run-up to the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections, however when the results came in, the BJP had 302 seats to the Congress-SP alliance's 47. Seven years later, the two leaders, both more mature politically, were seen together again when they formed the INDIA coalition for the main Lok Sabha battle. If present patterns continue, the two may have altered the outcome this time. In Uttar Pradesh, the INDIA group now holds 44 out of 80 seats, nine more than the NDA.

There's no Mayawati factor: The Bahujan Samaj Party, led by Mayawati, is known for surprising people. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP did not win any seats in Uttar Pradesh, but they came back strong in the 2019 election, winning ten. It partnered with the Samajwadi Party in the last election, but this time it contested alone, while her old ally joined the Congress.

According to current trends, the BSP appears to be on its way out. According to Election Commission figures, it is not even ahead in any seat. This is not good news for Mayawati. Also noteworthy are trends from the Nagina seat, where budding Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad is dominating the battle and the BSP is in fourth place. Azad's victory and the BSP's significant loss in the SC-reserved seat effectively mean that Mayawati's devoted Dalit support base has sought new leaders.