The India Meteorological Department has indicated that the southwest monsoon, crucial for the country's agriculture and economy, is likely to be weaker than normal this year. This is the first time since 2023 that the department has forecasted below-average rainfall.

According to the department, rainfall from June to September is expected to be around 92 percent of the long-term average (LPA). The department has also accounted for a model error of 5 percent in this forecast. The primary reason for the reduced rainfall is attributed to the developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which often affect the Indian monsoon.

Statistically, the LPA for the four-month monsoon session is set at 87 centimeters. If the forecast holds true, the average rainfall across the country could be limited to around 80.04 centimeters. According to the department's criteria, rainfall between 90 to 95 percent of the LPA is categorized as below normal.

The department has suggested that most parts of the country will experience a rainfall deficit, although conditions may be slightly better in some areas of Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India. Analysis indicates a 35 percent chance of a weak monsoon and a 31 percent chance of below-normal conditions. However, it is reassuring that less rainfall does not always equate to poor crop yields.

If the timing and distribution of rainfall are appropriate, the impact on Kharif production may be minimal. Nevertheless, the risk has increased for pulses and oilseed crops grown in rainfed areas. A decrease in the production of these crops could lead to a rise in import bills and food inflation, potentially affecting the country's economic growth rate.

Currently, 55 percent of India's agricultural area is irrigated, which helps combat drought-like conditions. The meteorological department will release its updated forecast at the end of May, which will provide information on the exact date of the monsoon.

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New Delhi, June 13 – The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that the southwest monsoon, which regained momentum this week, is expected to reach most parts of northwest India, including Delhi, well ahead of its normal schedule, likely by June 25.

The monsoon made an early onset over Kerala on May 24, the earliest since 2009 when it had arrived on May 23. Strong low-pressure systems over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal accelerated its progress, allowing it to cover regions like Mumbai, parts of central Maharashtra, and the entire northeastern belt by May 29.

However, from May 28–29 to June 10–11, the monsoon saw a brief pause before becoming active again. The delay in rainfall at the beginning of June led to a sharp rise in temperatures, resulting in severe heatwave conditions over large parts of northwest and central India from June 8–9.

According to IMD’s extended forecast, the monsoon is expected to cover the remaining parts of central and eastern India, along with portions of northwest India, by June 18. It is projected to advance into most regions of northwest India between June 19 and 25. An IMD official noted that Delhi could receive the monsoon by June 22 or 23, earlier than the usual onset date of June 27.

Meteorologists emphasized that the timing of the monsoon’s onset is not directly linked to the overall seasonal rainfall. An early or delayed arrival in Kerala or Mumbai does not necessarily indicate similar trends across the rest of the country. The monsoon is influenced by a complex interplay of global, regional, and local factors, leading to significant variability.

In May, IMD forecasted that India would receive 106 percent of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall of 87 cm during the June–September monsoon season. Rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of the LPA is considered ‘normal’.

Barring areas such as Ladakh, parts of Himachal Pradesh, the Northeast, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha, the majority of the country is expected to receive above-normal rainfall. However, isolated regions in Punjab, Haryana, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu may record below-normal precipitation.

The monsoon is vital to India’s agriculture sector, which supports nearly 42 percent of the population and contributes around 18.2 percent to the country’s GDP.

New Delhi, May 10 – The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Saturday that the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala on May 27 this year, marking an earlier-than-usual onset. The normal date for monsoon arrival in the southern state is June 1.

As per agency report, if the monsoon arrives in Kerala as forecasted, it will be the earliest since 2009, when the rains reached the Indian mainland on May 23. The official onset of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent is declared once it reaches Kerala.

The southwest monsoon typically covers the entire country by July 8 and begins its withdrawal from northwestern India around September 17, retreating completely by October 15.

In recent years, the monsoon reached Kerala on May 30 in 2024, June 8 in 2023, May 29 in 2022, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019, and May 29 in 2018.

An IMD official clarified that the timing of monsoon onset in Kerala does not directly correlate with the overall monsoon rainfall across the country. "An early or delayed arrival in Kerala does not necessarily indicate a similar pattern for the rest of India. The progression depends on a range of global, regional, and local atmospheric conditions," the official said.

Earlier in April, the IMD forecast above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, dismissing concerns of an El Niño effect, which is often linked to deficient rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.

Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, M Ravichandran, had stated that the country is likely to witness above-average rainfall during the core monsoon months from June to September.

The abundant monsoon rains have filled the dams across Gujarat to capacity, triggering a record surge in hydroelectric power generation this season. Notably, major dams such as Ukai, Kadana, and Sardar Sarovar have collectively produced 1067.3 million units (MU) of electricity in August 2024 alone, a significant increase from the 308.7 MU generated in July.

The boost in hydroelectric power aligns with India's ambitious vision of promoting clean energy and facilitating an energy transition. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has set goals to reach 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel-based energy capacity by 2030 and increase the share of renewable energy to at least 50% of its total installed power capacity.

In Gujarat, under the guidance of Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, the state is actively pursuing these goals. Initiatives like solar rooftops, hydro power projects, and renewable energy parks are accelerating renewable energy production throughout the state.

In August, the Sardar Sarovar Dam alone surpassed 800 MU of electricity production, demonstrating significant progress towards achieving these clean energy targets. Other hydro power plants in the state have also noted considerable increases in output.

Ukai, Kadana, Panam, and Sardar Sarovar Dams have been consistent performers, with an average annual production of about 4600 MU over the past five years. The year 2022-23 saw a total hydro power production of 6170.456 MU in the state, marking a 134% increase from 2629.059 MU in 2021-22, and maintaining a strong performance with 4584.932 MU in 2023-24.

Gujarat’s leadership in renewable energy, initially spearheaded by then-Chief Minister Narendra Modi, has set a national benchmark. Modi’s foresight in establishing the first Department of Climate Change in India during his tenure has significantly contributed to Gujarat's capabilities in achieving sustainability goals, energy transition, and net-zero targets. Gujarat remains the first state to implement policies promoting the development of renewable energy, firmly positioning it as a leader in India’s green energy sector.

New Delhi, 23 June (HS): On Sunday, Home Minister Amit Shah evaluated the country's preparations to deal with floods that occur during the monsoon season. Every year, significant sections of Bihar, Assam, and other eastern states are swamped as the water levels of numerous rivers rise owing to monsoon rainfall. The home minister presided over a high-level conference here to assess the country's overall flood management preparations, according to a home ministry official.

During the monsoon season, landslides and other rain-related difficulties occur in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and a few other states. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Jammu & Kashmir have all experienced flooding in recent years.

Union Minister of Jal Shakti C R Paatil, Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai, Secretaries of Ministries and Departments of Home, Water Resources, River Development, Earth Sciences, Environment, Road Transport, Chairman of the Railway Board, and NDMA officials were among those who attended the meeting. Several areas in Assam are now experiencing flooding, with over 1.17 lakh people affected across ten districts.

Floods have submerged 968 villages across 27 revenue circles in these districts, according to Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in a post on X. Authorities are already conducting 134 relief camps and 94 relief distribution centers, where a total of 17,661 individuals are seeking refuge, he added. The death toll from this year's flood, landslides, and storm in the state has reached 37, with one person still missing.

Ahmedabad, October 12: The Meteorological Department has expressed the possibility of rain in Ahmedabad on the first and second days of Navratri, October 15 and 16, respectively. This may disrupt the Garba events that are held during the nine-day festival.

The change in the environment is possible due to a western disturbance on October 14. The department has also predicted that there may be rain in many other districts of the state on these two days.

However, the chances of rain on October 14, the day of the World Cup cricket match between India and Pakistan, are negligible.

The Met Department has estimated that Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Kheda, Anand, Botad, Bhavnagar, and Mehsana may receive normal rains in the state on October 15, while Sabarkantha, Aravalli, Banaskantha, and Surendranagar may receive normal rains on October 16. There will be normal weather in other districts of the state.

If it does rain on Navratri, it is likely to adversely affect the expectations of farmers, as the monsoon crop is ready for harvest.

The winter season is expected to start gradually in the state in the coming days. Western disturbances occur many times in the state during the winter season, which is why cold gradually gains strength in Gujarat. There is a strong south-west wind in the state at present.

Jaipur, Sept 1 (IANS) MeT officials have said that Rajasthan has received the least rainfall in the month of August for the first time in the last 85 years.

It said that in August, Rajasthan witnessed 80 per cent less than the average rainfall and this is the third season in the last 117 years when the month of August has received the least rainfall.

Officials said that the average rainfall for the month of August in Rajasthan remains around 155.7MM. However, Rajasthan has received around only 30.9MM rainfall.

Met officials said that the situation worsened in August under the influence of El Nino and the same weather conditions are expected to remain in the month of September as well.

“After 85 years, there has been 30.9MM rain in August 2023. The lowest rainfall in August in Rajasthan is 15.2MM, which happened in 1905. In 1937, Rajasthan had witnessed around 27.4MM in the month of August. In 2022, there was more than 50MM rainfall in Rajasthan in August,” the MeT officials said.

The officials said that 10 out of 31 days witnessed dry weather in the entire state in the month of August. Light rain or drizzle was witnessed only at one or two places in the state for only a period of five days.

They said that the Ganganagar district received the least rainfall in Rajasthan in August. The average rainfall in the district was recorded only at 0.3MM. Similarly, Barmer also received only 0.4MM rain in August. Karauli received the maximum rainfall of 213.7MM, but it is also nine per cent less than the normal.

Officials said that there was absolutely no rain in Sikar, Jalore, Churu, Bikaner, Barmer, Ganganagar, Jaisalmer, and Jodhpur in August.

“The millet crop has started getting damaged. In 9 districts of western Rajasthan, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Jodhpur, Pali, Hanumangarh, Sriganganagar, Bikaner, Nagaur and Churu, there is maximum possibility of crop damage,” the officials said.

In view of the apprehension of damage to the crops, the Agriculture Department has started preparations to get the damage assessment done. The department has also sought data from the Meteorological Department about the rains in August.

According to meteorologists, the country is expected to receive less rainfall this September as well. The major reason behind this is the effect of El Nino and the neutral condition of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Also, no major weather system is forming in the Bay of Bengal, due to which the rainfall is decreasing in the entire country.

New Delhi, August 31 (IANS) The poor monsoon is becoming a major worry and unless the rains revive soon, the economy and markets will come under a cloud, says V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

The declining bond yields in the US has turned the global market construct favourable for equities. But this is unlikely to create a highly favourable environment in the Indian market since the poor monsoon is becoming a major worry, he said.

It is important to remember that the RBI’s projection of FY24 inflation at 5.4 per cent is based on a normal monsoon. Presently, the probability of a deficient monsoon is high, he said.

This will impact GDP growth and keep inflation elevated. The impact on the FMCG sector will be high. Investors may consider tweaking their portfolio with higher weightage for more inflation-proof segments like pharmaceuticals and export oriented sectors like IT, he added.

BSE Sensex is down 71 points at 65,015 points. Nestle is down more than 1 per cent, Bajaj Finance is also down 1 per cent.

New Delhi, July 23 (IANS) Isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity is likely over Konkan, the Ghat areas of central Maharashtra, and Gujarat, while there will be an increase in rainfall in northwest India from July 25, the India Meteorological Department has forecast.

Light to moderate rain is likely to be witnessed in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh from July 25 and 27. Heavy rainfall is very likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and east Rajasthan between July 23 and 27, and over West Rajasthan on July 25 and 26.

The Central part of the country is also likely to witness continuous rainfall till July 27.

The Monsoon Trough is active and runs to the south of its normal position and its Western end is likely to shift gradually northwards during the next 2-3 days. A cyclonic circulation lies over central Madhya Pradesh in lower and middle tropospheric levels.

"The shear zone lies roughly along Lat. 20 degrees N between 3.1 and 5.8 km above mean sea level. Another cyclonic circulation lies over south Odisha and the neighborhood in lower tropospheric levels. A cyclonic circulation is very likely to form over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal on July 24. Under its influence, a Low Pressure Area is likely to form over the same region during the subsequent 24 hours," it said.

In Central India, rain is expected in Chhattisgarh. The IMD further stated that heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely to continue over Konkan and Goa and the ghat areas of central Maharashtra till July 27.

Chandigarh (India), July 13:  United Sikhs have swiftly mobilized their Emergency Response Teams to provide assistance to the flood-affected communities in Mohali, Rupnagar, Sangrur, Ludhiana and other affected areas. With the submergence of several regions in Panjab, the teams are on the ground providing emergency assistance to the people impacted. The on-ground evaluation is also identifying the immediate needs of the people to provide targeted assistance efficiently.

Speaking about the aid, Gurvinder Singh, UNITED SIKHS International Humanitarian Aid Director of United Sikhs, said, “Punjab is passing through a tough time due to flooding. Our emergency response teams have reached the affected areas, rescuing people to safer areas. We are also assessing the most urgent requirements of the affected communities.”

Recognizing the importance of accessibility and convenience, United Sikhs teams are geographically reviewing the affected regions to identify suitable locations for setting up satellite centers in the state. These centers will serve as operational hubs for providing essential relief materials, medical aid, and other necessary services to flood-affected individuals and families.

United Sikhs Director Amritpal Singh said, “To ensure seamless delivery of assistance, we are also mobilizing a fleet of vans and ambulances equipped with essential supplies and resources.

These vans are being deployed to the affected areas, enabling our teams to rapidly respond to the immediate needs of the communities.” He said that United Sikhs encourage individuals to come forward and support our relief efforts.

Donations in the form of funds, essential supplies, or volunteer time are vital in helping people and providing aid to a larger number of individuals. Contact us at 98140-91339.

Your contribution can make a huge difference in extending help to those in need. You can donate at https://unitedsikhs.org/panjab-flood-relief/.

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Manali, July 12 (IANS) Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Sukhvinder Sukhu on Wednesday said the evacuation of nearly 300 tourists, who have been stranded for the past four days in the Chandertal lake in Lahaul-Spiti district, was "the toughest challenge".

“In Chandertal, there is some challenge, but the situation is under control,” Sukhu told the media here after the air recee of the snow-marooned mountains where tourists have been kept in tented accommodation provided by the state government.

The Chief Minister said two ministers, Jagat Singh Negi and Sanjay Awasthi, have been deputed by road at the spot to oversee the underway relief and rescue operation.

Without mincing words, he said: “As per my observation, the toughest evacuation so far is that of the Chandertal.”

On his official twitter handle, the Chief Minister shared aerial pictures of the Chandertal with colourful tents dotted on the white blanked of snow.

“Due to heavy snowfall and bad weather, it has become very difficult to evacuate them. We are exploring all possible options,” Sukhu tweeted.

He said over 250 tourists are stranded there, and road connectivity is severely impacted.

“The government attempted to airlift the tourists but was unable to do so due to bad weather.”

The stranded people comprise tourists, largely from Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat and three women foreigners -- two from Ireland and one from the US. They have been stuck as rain-battered hills snapped road links.

Heavy snowfall in the region this week has also made the operation to reopen the road network more challenging, according to a government official.

“The snow-clearing operation towards the Kunzum Pass began early this (Wednesday) morning on the third day and a 12-km stretch has been made motorable,” Assistant Public Relations Officer Ajay Banyal, who is posted in Kaza, the headquarters of Spiti, told IANS over phone.

Now the total distance to clear the snow to reach the tented accommodation of the tourists at the Chandertal is 25 km.

Elsewhere, the Chief Minister said over 2,000 stranded individuals in Kasol in Kullu district have been successfully evacuated.

“Our teams are working tirelessly to clear the Dunkhara landslide on the Kasol-Bhuntar road. The district administration is on-site coordinating relief efforts. A total of 2,200 plus vehicles have safely passed through Kullu, receiving food support at Ramshilla Chowk. I personally oversee the situation and remain committed to overcoming these challenges,” he said.

The Chief Minister the situation in Manali and Sissu has improved.

“The traffic from Manali (on the Manali-Chandigarh highway) is slow but moving. We have started the evacuation of children from Sissu.”

In the Kara Bhawa Valley rescue operation in Kinnaur, all 28 people stranded have been rescued and reached nearest villages by trekking. They have been provided food and medical assistance.

Meanwhile, vehicles have been allowed in batches on the Shimla-Chandigarh national highway 5 due to ongoing restoration work at Chakkimod. The Baddi to Ropar via Nalagarh road, which was damaged, has been made motorable. The Baddi to Pinjore via Barotiwala and Baddi to Chandigarh via Siswan is open for light motor vehicles only. The Nalagarh to Swarghat, Nalagarh to Ramshehar and Nalagarh to Bharatgarh via Dabhota road are still cut off, a police statement said.