The government has urged citizens to avoid panic buying of petrol, diesel, and LPG. It stated that despite disruptions related to the closure of the Hormuz Strait, fuel supply is sufficient and the situation is under control.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas mentioned that active measures are being taken to ensure the uninterrupted availability of petroleum products and cooking gas in the country. People have been advised to rely only on official information and to conserve energy. The government has prioritized domestic LPG and piped natural gas (PNG), especially for households, hospitals, and essential services.

Refineries have increased production to balance demand and enhance supply, and the interval for filling gas cylinders has also been extended. Strict measures have been implemented to curb hoarding and black marketing, with over 3,700 raids conducted so far, and nearly 1,000 show-cause notices issued to LPG distributors, of which 27 dealers have been suspended. The supply of commercial LPG has been limited to about 70 percent of previous levels, while the use of alternative fuels like kerosene and coal is being increased to alleviate pressure.

In terms of natural gas, full supply is being provided to households and the transport sector, while supply to the industry and fertilizer sectors is being gradually increased. The ministry reported that all refineries are operating at high capacity and sufficient stocks are available at petrol pumps across the country. To provide relief from rising global prices, the government has reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by 10 rupees per liter and imposed a duty on exports.

Meanwhile, an Indian LPG tanker carrying nearly half a day's supply of cooking gas has successfully crossed the war-torn Hormuz Strait, while another Iranian vessel has reached Mangalore port. The government informed about the situation in West Asia, stating that the LPG ship named 'Green Sanvi' has safely crossed the Hormuz Strait with 46,650 tons of cooking gas and 25 crew members. Green Sanvi is the seventh Indian-flagged LPG tanker to cross this crucial maritime route.

This strait has been in a near-closure situation since February 28, following attacks by the US and Israel on Iran and Tehran's subsequent retaliation, significantly affecting ship movement. Separately, it was mentioned that a ship carrying cooking gas from Iran has reached Mangalore port and is currently unloading gas. This is possibly the first energy purchase from Iran in the last seven years.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas posted on the social media platform 'X' that the LPG ship named 'Sea Bird', which brought approximately 44,000 tons of Iranian cooking gas, arrived at Mangalore port on April 2 and is currently unloading gas. This purchase occurred at a time when the US recently granted temporary relief from sanctions imposed on Iranian oil and related products to control rising prices amid the West Asia crisis. Despite the passage of 'Green Sanvi', 17 Indian-flagged ships remain stranded in the western part of the strait.

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New Delhi, November 28: India is poised to lead growth across emerging markets and the Asia Pacific region with a projected Gross Domestic Product growth of seven percent in 2025 and 6.4 percent in 2026. Moody's Ratings stated on Friday that the country's domestic growth drivers continue to reinforce its economic strength amidst prevailing global uncertainties.

The rating agency observed that although the Indian Rupee has been weakening against the US Dollar, the majority of rated companies possess active currency risk management mechanisms or strong financial buffers to handle the situation, as per agency report. The agency emphasized that India will spearhead growth among emerging markets and the entire region based on these projections.

It has been estimated that the Gross Domestic Product growth in the Asia-Pacific region will stabilize at an average of 3.4 percent in 2026. This follows a projected growth of 3.6 percent in 2025, which marks an increase from the 3.3 percent recorded in 2024.

Moody's further noted that on a weighted average basis, emerging markets are expected to drive the GDP growth momentum in the region. These markets are projected to register an average growth of 5.6 percent, whereas advanced markets are expected to record an average growth of 1.3 percent.

New York, September 28 – External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has underlined that the world will require a large-scale global workforce in the coming years and, despite prevailing uncertainties, new trade arrangements will continue to take shape.

As per agency report, Jaishankar made these remarks while addressing an Observer Research Foundation (ORF) event on the sidelines of the 80th United Nations General Assembly session in New York. He observed that trade has an inherent ability to adapt and chart its own course, even during uncertain times.

The minister stressed that emerging models of trade, technology, connectivity, and workplace structures are set to transform the global landscape in the near future. He pointed out that India has been deepening its engagement with Latin American and Caribbean nations, aiming to further expand trade and partnerships in those regions.

In his address, Jaishankar emphasized the importance of capacity building, particularly for major nations, to achieve greater self-reliance in what he described as a turbulent international environment. He noted that India is focusing heavily on strengthening its technological capabilities, fostering self-reliance, advancing multipolarity, and promoting South-South cooperation.

South-South cooperation, he explained, refers to the exchange of knowledge, expertise, and technology among developing nations that form part of the Global South. The goal of this cooperation is to tackle common development challenges, promote economic and social progress, and achieve collective self-reliance without depending excessively on developed economies.

Jaishankar’s comments come against the backdrop of recent policy measures in the United States and other global developments. The US has raised the annual H-1B visa fee to 100,000 dollars, a move that impacts Indian professionals who account for nearly 71 percent of H-1B holders, numbering over 280,000. Chinese professionals make up about 11.7 percent of the total. Additionally, India has faced added tariffs on certain goods linked to its continued purchase of Russian oil.

New Delhi, May 24 – India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, according to BVR Subrahmanyam, Chief Executive Officer of NITI Aayog. The announcement was made following the 10th Governing Council meeting of NITI Aayog held in the capital.

Addressing reporters after the meeting, Subrahmanyam emphasized that the global and domestic economic landscape is currently favorable for India. Citing figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he stated that India has now reached the milestone of becoming a $4 trillion economy, ahead of Japan.

As per agency report, Subrahmanyam highlighted that only the United States, China, and Germany now rank above India in terms of economic size. He projected that if the country maintains its current trajectory and policy direction, India could rise to become the third-largest economy in the world within the next two-and-a-half to three years.

India had previously become the world’s fifth-largest economy by 2024, but the rapid pace of its economic expansion, driven by strong domestic demand, technological innovation, and infrastructure development, has now propelled it further up the global rankings.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, released in April, had anticipated that India would surpass Japan in 2025 with a GDP of $4.19 trillion. Subrahmanyam confirmed that this milestone has already been achieved.

According to IMF data, India’s per capita income has also seen a substantial increase, doubling from $1,438 in 2013-14 to $2,880 in 2025. This growth underscores the country's improving economic fundamentals and rising standard of living.

The achievement marks a significant moment in India's economic journey and adds to the government’s broader narrative of India emerging as a global economic powerhouse in the coming decade.

New Delhi, April 2 – Indian exports across several key sectors, including agriculture, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, electronics, and machinery, may face the brunt of retaliatory tariffs imposed by the United States. Experts warn that products with a high tariff differential—where India's import duties are significantly higher than those of the US—are particularly vulnerable.

As per agency report, the tariff differential refers to the gap between the import duties imposed by India and the United States on similar products. This gap varies widely across sectors. For example, the differential is 8.6 percent for chemicals and pharmaceuticals, 5.6 percent for plastics, 1.4 percent for textiles and garments, 13.3 percent for gems and jewellery, 2.5 percent for metals, 5.3 percent for machinery and computers, 7.2 percent for electronics, and 23.1 percent for automobiles and their components.

According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), agriculture is likely to be one of the worst-hit sectors. Processed seafood, particularly shrimp—India’s major export to the US—could become less competitive due to higher tariffs. In 2024, India exported fish, meat, and processed seafood worth $2.58 billion to the US, with a tariff differential of 27.83 percent.

Yogesh Gupta, Managing Director of Kolkata-based seafood exporter Mega Moda, stated that Indian seafood exports to the US are already subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties. An additional increase in duties would erode India's competitiveness. Nearly 40 percent of India's shrimp exports go to the US. Gupta noted that Indian exporters could find relief if similar tariffs are imposed on rival exporters like Ecuador and Indonesia.

Processed food, sugar, and cocoa exports, valued at $1.03 billion last year, may also be impacted by a 24.99 percent tariff differential. Similarly, exports of grains, vegetables, fruits, and spices worth $1.91 billion face a 5.72 percent differential.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, highlighted that dairy product exports worth $181.49 million may be severely affected by a 38.23 percent tariff gap, making ghee, butter, and milk powder more expensive and less competitive in the US market.

In industrial goods, pharmaceuticals, jewellery, and electronics are among the sectors likely to feel the impact. Pharmaceuticals, India’s largest industrial export worth $12.72 billion in 2024, may face a 10.9 percent tariff hike, raising costs for generic and specialty drugs. Gems and jewellery exports, totaling $11.88 billion, could see a 13.32 percent increase in duties, diminishing price competitiveness.

Electrical, telecom, and electronic goods worth $14.39 billion face a 7.24 percent tariff. Machinery, boilers, turbines, and computers, with an export value of $7.10 billion, may be hit with a 5.29 percent tariff increase, potentially affecting India’s engineering exports.

Rubber products such as tyres and belts, worth $1.06 billion, may be subjected to a 7.76 percent tariff, while paper and wood products valued at $969.65 million could face duties of around 7.87 percent. The new tariff regime threatens to raise costs and reduce India’s competitiveness in key sectors across the US market.

New Delhi, March 11 – A recent report by Morgan Stanley highlighted that trade tensions will continue to challenge Asia’s economic growth. However, India remains the best-positioned economy in the region due to its lower reliance on merchandise exports, strong service exports, and policy support for domestic demand.

The report emphasized that easing fiscal and monetary policy constraints would accelerate India’s economic recovery. It noted that monetary easing is being fully implemented across three key areas: interest rates, liquidity injections, and regulatory relaxations. While trade tensions are expected to affect the broader regional trade outlook, India faces lower risk due to its lower export-to-GDP ratio.

The report further stated that policy support, which is set to bolster domestic demand, will help India outperform its regional peers. Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about India’s growth trajectory, stating that recent economic data has shown positive signals. The firm’s high-frequency metric—Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue—grew at an average of 10.7 percent in January-February 2025, compared to 8.9 percent in the third quarter of 2024 and 8.3 percent in the fourth quarter. Adjusting for the extra leap year day in February 2024, the GST revenue growth in the first two months of 2025 stands at 12.6 percent.

The report also highlighted that sustained public capital expenditure, threefold monetary easing, easing food inflation, rising real household income, and improving service exports would support economic recovery.

Morgan Stanley expects that policy measures, including liquidity infusion and regulatory relaxations, will further aid growth. Most of these measures have been implemented within the past six weeks, meaning their full impact on economic recovery will take some time to materialize.

Private consumption in the fourth quarter of 2024 showed signs of improvement, with real private consumption growth rising to 6.9 percent. Additionally, the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector witnessed a 7.1 percent increase in volume growth, primarily driven by strong rural demand recovery.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has begun easing regulatory restrictions on non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). A recent rollback of a 25-percentage-point increase in risk weights on bank credit to NBFCs indicates a shift towards a more accommodative policy.

The report concluded that these measures will improve liquidity access for NBFC lenders and, in turn, facilitate better credit flow to end borrowers, further strengthening India’s economic momentum.

New Delhi, February 14 – The recent announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding retaliatory tariffs on India has introduced uncertainty in bilateral trade relations. However, experts believe that a proposed major trade agreement could help strengthen commerce between the two nations.

During his talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington, Trump emphasized that India would purchase more oil, gas, and military equipment from the US to reduce the trade deficit. However, he also asserted that the US would not refrain from imposing retaliatory tariffs on Indian goods.

Experts suggest that India must carefully balance domestic industry protection while increasing exports to the US. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) noted that while both leaders discussed an impending trade deal, details remain unclear. Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, pointed out that it is still unknown whether the retaliatory tariffs will target specific products or entire sectors.

Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO), stressed the need for India to negotiate exemptions for key sectors while strategically leveraging recent tariff concessions on American goods. He suggested that a limited preferential trade agreement (PTA) could mitigate tariff concerns without requiring a full-scale free trade agreement (FTA).

Trade policy expert Abhijit Das highlighted that the uncertainty surrounding retaliatory tariffs could significantly impact trade relations between the two countries. He warned that such tariffs could contradict WTO regulations, potentially leading to trade disputes.

International trade expert Biswajit Dhar echoed similar concerns, stating that Trump's tariff measures might pressure India into reducing tariffs on agricultural imports, or else face higher US tariffs on Indian goods.

In a joint press conference with Modi, Trump emphasized that both nations are exploring a major trade agreement, while also criticizing India's import tariffs on certain American products as unfair and excessive. He stated, "Whatever tariffs India imposes, we will do the same. We are treating India the way it treats us."

During April-November 2024-25, the US was India's second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $82.52 billion. This included $52.89 billion in exports from India, $29.63 billion in imports, and a trade surplus of $23.26 billion. Between 2021 and 2024, the US had been India's largest trading partner.

As trade tensions rise, all eyes are now on further negotiations between India and the US to prevent escalation and foster a more stable trade environment.

New Delhi - Amidst ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, the Indian economy continues to display resilience, though certain high-frequency indicators suggest a softening economic outlook. This was highlighted in the latest monthly economic review by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).

According to the report, growth in bank loans from scheduled commercial banks (both food and non-food sectors) is expected to decline by June 2024. There has been a noted decrease in personal loans and bank lending to the services sector. Additionally, the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2024 saw a slight decline but maintained an expansionary trajectory. However, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) and the IPI for major industries recorded a decrease in growth in June 2024.

The NCAER review also pointed out a decrease in core inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2024, primarily due to reduced food inflation. Correspondingly, inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) also declined in July, largely due to the same factors. Notably, the trade deficit for goods increased in July 2024, while there was a sequential increase in the trade surplus for services.

Established in 1956, NCAER remains India's oldest and largest independent, non-profit economic policy research institute, dedicated to providing insights and solutions for sustained economic growth.

New Delhi, July 22 (HS): Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday presented the Economic Survey of the financial year 2023-24 in the Lok Sabha. Presenting the Economic Survey, Sitharaman said that the condition of the Indian economy is better amid geopolitical challenges. She said that the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been 8.2 percent in the financial year 2023-24. The growth rate is estimated to be 6.5-7 percent during the current financial year 2024-25. Economic Survey 2023-2024 was also presented in the Rajya Sabha.

The Economic Survey said that despite uncertain economic performance globally, growth factors at the domestic level have supported economic growth. He said that the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in the financial year 2023-24 has been 8.2 percent.

Economic Survey expects relief on the inflation front:

The Economic Survey said that the increase in geopolitical tensions in the world and its impact will also affect the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The expectation of normal monsoon in the country and softening of import prices may provide relief on the inflation front. The Finance Minister said that the estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Reserve Bank seem 'correct'. However, the RBI has already expressed its forecast regarding inflation.

Presenting the Economic Survey, Nirmala Sitharaman said that India can increase its participation in the global supply chain with foreign investment from China. The survey said that India's policies have efficiently faced the challenges, while ensuring price stability despite global uncertainties. According to the Economic Survey, capital markets are now becoming a major role in the country's growth story.

Presenting the Economic Survey, the Finance Minister said that high levels of funding from the private sector and raising resources from new sources will be important for the construction of quality infrastructure. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the Economic Review about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employees with different skills. The review has estimated that new-age technology will increase productivity, but there may be adverse effects on employment in some sectors.

What is Economic Survey?

The Economic Survey is an annual document presented by the Central Government before the Union Budget, which contains an unbiased review of the state of the economy. The Economic Survey is prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance. It is prepared under the supervision of the Chief Economic Advisor of the country. It is presented in both the houses of Parliament. The Economic Survey reviews the developments in the Indian economy in the last 12 months. The survey also gives information about what should be expected in this year's budget.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman lauded the rapid economic growth of India under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Speaking at the Vikas Bharat Ambassador Campus Dialogue at the Gandhi Institute of Technology and Management (GITAM) University in Visakhapatnam, Sitharaman credited the Modi government's strong will and visionary leadership for the country's development.

She emphasized India's remarkable progress, noting that the country has jumped from being the 10th largest economy in 2014 during the UPA regime to the 5th largest in 2024 under the current government. Sitharaman highlighted the government's commitment to research funding, with an allocation of approximately Rs 1 lakh crore aimed at boosting research budgets across various fields to drive inclusive growth.

Sitharaman also pointed out that India's improved ranking in the ease of doing business index and the government's efforts to combat corruption and reduce red tape have contributed to India's status as a bright spot in the global economy. She expressed confidence that India will soon become the 3rd largest economy, reflecting the country's trajectory of rapid development and growth.

New Delhi, Feb 15 (IANS) Japan has slipped to the world's fourth-largest economy as it fell behind the size of Germany's in 2023, says Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

Japan's nominal GDP totalled $4.2 trillion last year, or about 591 trillion yen. Germany's, announced last month, was $4.4 trillion, or $4.5 trillion, depending on the currency conversion, he added.

For the latest October-December quarter, the Japanese economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.4 per cent, and minus 0.1 per cent from the previous quarter, according to Cabinet Office data on real GDP. For the year, real GDP grew 1.9 per cent from the previous year, he said.

This follows a 3.3 per cent contraction in the third quarter. Two consecutive quarters of contraction are widely considered a technical recession, he added.

Japan has unexpectedly fallen into a recession after its economy shrank for two quarters in a row, BBC reported.

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by a worse-than-expected 0.4% in the last three months of 2023, compared to a year earlier.

It came after the economy shrank by 3.3 per cent in the previous quarter.

The figures from Japan's Cabinet Office also indicate that the country may have also lost its position as the world's third-largest economy to Germany, BBC reported.

Economists had expected the new data to show that Japan's GDP grew by more than 1% in the fourth quarter of last year.

In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that Germany was likely to overtake Japan as the world's third-largest economy when measured in US dollars, BBC reported.

The IMF will only declare a change in its rankings once both countries have published the final versions of their economic growth figures. It began publishing data comparing economies in 1980.

Economist Neil Newman told the BBC that the latest figures show that Japan's economy was worth about $4.2tn (£3.3tn) in 2023, while Germany's was $4.4tn.

This was due to the weakness of the Japanese currency against the dollar and that if the yen recovers, the country could regain the number three spot, Newman added, BBC reported.

At a press conference in Tokyo this month, the IMF's deputy head, Gita Gopinath, also said an important reason for Japan potentially slipping in the rankings was the yen falling by about 9 per cent against the US dollar last year.

However, the weakness of the yen has helped to boost the share prices of some of Japan's biggest companies as it makes the country's exports, such as cars, cheaper in overseas markets.

This week, Tokyo's main stock index, the Nikkei 225, crossed the 38,000 mark for the first time since 1990, when a collapse in property prices triggered an economic crisis. The Nikkei 225's record high of 38,915.87 was set on 29 December 1989, BBC reported.

New Delhi, feb 8 (IANS) Comparing the performance of the 10-year rule of the Narendra Modi government with that of the erstwhile UPA regime, the White Paper on Indian Economy tabled in the Lok Sabha by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlights the fact that in 2014, India was among the 'fragile five' economies, but now figures among the 'top five' economies, making the third highest contribution to global growth every year.

“When the NDA government took over the reins in 2014, the economy was in a crisis. We faced the hydra-headed challenge of fixing an economy that was mismanaged for a decade, and restoring its fundamentals to sound health,” the White Paper said.

It goes on to present a 'Then and Now' scenario of the comparison to drive home its point:

* Then, the world had lost confidence in India's economic potential and dynamism; now, with our economic stability and growth prospects, we inspire hope in others. It cites the perceptions of two major international organisations.

* Then, we had a scam-riddled 12-day Commonwealth Games; now, we successfully hosted a far-bigger and year-long G20 Presidency in 2023, showcasing India at its best in terms of content, consensus and logistics, providing acceptable solutions to global problems.

* Then, we had 2G scam; now, we have extensive coverage of the population under 4G with the lowest rates and the world's fastest rollout of 5G in 2023.

* Then, we had the Coalgate scam; now, we have built systems for transparent and objective auctions for harnessing natural resources to boost the economy and the public finances.

* Then we provided gold import license for a chosen few; now, we have set up a bullion exchange in GIFT IFSC with a transparent mechanism for import.

* Then, we had the economy facing a 'twin balance sheet problem'; now, we have turned the economy to having a 'twin balance sheet advantage' for companies as well as banking sector with ample capacity to ramp up investments and credit and generate employment.

* Then, we had double-digit inflation; now, inflation has been brought down to little over 5 per cent.

* Then, we had a foreign exchange crisis; now, we have record foreign exchange reserves of over USD 620 billion.

* Then, we had 'policy-paralysis'; infrastructure was not a priority; now, the wheels of the virtuous cycle of 'investment, growth, employment and entrepreneurship, and savings' leading to more investments and productivity has been set into fast motion.

* Then, we had sporadic coverage of development programmes; now, we have 'saturation coverage' for providing basic necessities for all, with measured, targeted, and inclusive support for the needy and empowerment of all to pursue their aspirations.

* In sum, the progress achieved in the ten years of our government has overcome the malaise and paralysis of the previous ten years of the UPA government.

In 2024, confidence and purpose have replaced the diffidence and drift of 2014, the paper stated as it listed selected socio-economic indicators such as the alleviation of poverty and creation of more employment.

“Our government, armed with political and policy stability, recognised the need to make tough decisions for the greater economic good… Rather than employing quick fixes, we undertook bold reforms to nurture the coming decades of economic performance,” it said.

Contrasting its style of functioning with the UPA, the White Paper asserted that the Modi government, unlike its predecessor, invested in the foundations of the economy along with building a sturdy superstructure.

The White Paper concludes by saying that the government will not rest on its past laurels as the goal is to make India a "developed nation by 2047".